Political and economic environment
War, inflation, and weak economic forecasts – numerous risks came to the fore in 2023 and provided little optimism for the performance of the financial markets. In addition to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the geopolitical risks surrounding the situation in the Middle East have multiplied. The central banks have continued their efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates. Nevertheless, when it comes to investment, 2023 will be fondly remembered for providing solid returns on the global equity and bond markets.
After the challenging year on the stock markets in 2022, the positive trend on the equity markets in the first half of the year came as a surprise to many. Even the banking earthquakes – in particular the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the USA and, not long after that, the downfall of Credit Suisse – were unable to interrupt the upward trajectory. Only when hopes of falling interest rates faded in the third quarter did share prices fall sharply. However, they were more than offset by the end of the year following visible successes on the inflation front and the central banks’ subsequent pause in the rate hike cycle.
In the end, this resulted, in local currency terms, in a return of over 20 per cent for global equity markets. That said, there were significant differences across countries and industries, and the real drivers of performance last year were technology companies, especially the “glorious seven” from the United States (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla). The Swiss market lagged behind global trends with a yield of 6 per cent.
Bond markets also experienced a dynamic year. The more restrictive monetary policy to contain inflation led to rising interest rates – except in Switzerland, where falling interest rates on longer Swiss franc bond maturities enabled a considerable yield of 5 per cent.
Continued demand for housing combined with a simultaneous shortage of supply had a positive impact on the Swiss real estate market. Vacant apartments are steadily decreasing in number, which has a price-supporting effect despite the increased financing costs. Added to which, the renewed rise in the reference interest rate means that many rents will go up again in April 2024. Rising rental income is likely to offset much of the higher cost base.