Political and economic environment
2024 was a remarkable year for the financial markets. Despite weak economic development, stubborn inflation and initially restrictive monetary policy, the markets continued to grow. Even geopolitical tensions and acts of war were unable to curb the upward trend.
The global equity markets posted strong gains, particularly in the USA. Driven by the ongoing AI trend, the S&P 500 reached a new record high. In contrast, the performance of the Swiss equity market was lower due to the lack of technology stocks and lower demand for defensive stocks.
The bond markets experienced a roller coaster ride. The initial rally came to a halt when expectations for rapid interest rate cuts were adjusted. Nevertheless, bonds appreciated again in the third quarter due to the sharp fall in interest rates. In addition to the four interest rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank, the Fed also kicked off its interest rate reversal in September with a surprising cut of 50 basis points and announced further cuts – something that the markets received positively.
The price of gold regularly hit new record levels over the course of the year and recorded a remarkable increase. In addition to falling key interest rates, military conflicts, uncertain economic conditions and rising global debt also contributed to the precious metal’s soaring performance. In addition, emerging market central banks are increasingly shifting their US dollar holdings to gold. The property market also benefited from lower interest rates and became more attractive as lower financing costs supported the sector. In addition, the limited supply has a supportive effect while demand remains high. However, differences were also apparent here between the different market segments and regions.
Overall, the financial markets remained robust in 2024 despite many global challenges. Equities posted double-digit performances, while bonds and properties benefited from the turnaround in interest rates. However, thanks to the good performance of the equity markets, valuations have risen, which has narrowed the scope for upwards progression. Inflation rates continued to fall, but the pressure has eased. Various central banks have loosened their monetary policy to counteract the weaker economic momentum. These measures helped the financial markets to continue their positive development despite the initial economic weakness. Ultimately, it was the combination of monetary policy support and technological advances that favoured and enabled an above-average performance on the investment markets.